Wind Turbine Reliability Forecast: A Technical Review on the Research Milestone and Assessment of the Energy Cost Using Monte Carlo Simulation
Abstract
Renewable energy, particularly wind energy, has begun to transform the global power structure, which was previously dominated by fossil fuels. The growth rate of wind energy installations reaches 30%, providing promising potential. However, wind turbines have the potential for failure in both offshore and onshore wind turbines. The failure rate of wind turbines needs to be considered to maximize the electrical energy they can generate, which may increase the levelized energy cost. This research aims to develop maintenance strategies, implement risk prevention measures, and enhance the operational efficiency of wind turbines to minimize negative impacts on energy production and costs. This research utilized variables such as failure probability, downtime, and maintenance cost, which were then simulated using the Monte Carlo method. The results showed that wind turbine failures had a significant impact on energy production and costs. The prolonged duration of downtime and increased maintenance costs will lead to a decrease in energy production and higher energy tariffs.