Hybrid Technico-Economical Modeling of the Mid-Term Green Economy and Low-Carbon Development Strategy of Kazakhstan
Abstract
This study addresses the alarming approach of Kazakhstan's CO2 emissions to the 1990 levels, a critical reference year set by the international climate community, despite earlier successes in emission reductions following the country's independence. The resurgence is attributed to economic activities centered around the extraction and export of fossil fuels and minerals. To evaluate the feasibility and effectiveness of reaching these targets, this paper utilizes a hybrid soft-linked Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) and energy system modelling (TIMES) results of Kazakhstan under current trends (baseline scenario) and alternative scenarios with the introduction of stricter emissions trading scheme (ETS), carbon taxing, increasing energy generation with renewable energy sources, and improving energy efficiency and conversion in the activity sectors. The combination and separate use of the policies in the alternative scenarios allow deeply assessing their impact on the macroeconomic indicators of the country’s economy while achieving the target emissions. While the increase of the share of renewables in the energy generation mix is a technological measure associated with significant investment, the change of ETS to a stricter scheme and carbon taxing is an administrative measure related to high risk not being achieved.